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Using the New York Giants’ Draft History to Project Their 2012 NFL Draft Plans

March 30th, 2012 at 11:09 AM
By Kyle Langan

Everyone loves mock drafts, but the truth is they are kind of silly. Every draft day there are millions of unforeseen scenarios and trades that alter everything. It is nearly impossible to anticipate who will be available at a given time. That being said, Giants 101 recently did some very heavy research into how the New York Giants approach the NFL Draft and will now use that as a projective tool for 2012. 

Here is a recap of some of the many takeaways the research offered us.

1. Over 71% of the time, the New York Giants draft for pass offense and defense. Cornerback, wide receiver, and defensive end make up the lions share of their top picks (outside of the quarterback).

2. Running back and tight end are among the least valued positions on the Giant draft board over the first four rounds.

Despite needs in the backfield and at tight end, the Giants aren't likely to address those issues until later on in the draft. They are more likely to continue to build upon premium positions such as wide receiver and pass rusher early in the draft. Since it is almost impossible to guess whom will be available at the 32 spot, we here at Giants 101 were able to narrow the field based on draft philosophy. 

1. Vinny Curry, DE, Marshall; Nick Perry, DE, USC; Luke Kuechly, MLB, Boston College; Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State; Kendall Wright, WR, Baylor; Zach Brown, LB, North Carolina

Here is some background on aforementioned players:

Both Perry and Curry fit nicely into the pass rush rotation from day one while projecting as a possible replacement for Mathias Kiwanuka at the SAM linebacker spot in a few seasons. Maybe even Osi Umenyiora as well. If one or both of them depart in the next 2-3 seasons, it will be absolutely necessary for the Giants to add another elite pass rusher. There are quite a few available right now, it would shock no one to see the Giants go after one early here.

Zach Brown and Luke Keuchly both would go somewhat against the grain in terms of what the Giants typically look for early in drafts. The team rarely jumps at linebackers. I tend to think that the 30-36 range is the prime range for 4-3 middle linebackers in the draft now. They are extremely undervalued now and I think  the Giants would be quick to snatch up the best player available in the defensive front seven. 

Kendall Wright and maybe Georgia Tech's Stephen Hill could slip if there is a run on another position. The Giants love offensive weapons and Eli Manning is a quarterback in his prime, it makes sense to continue to give him said weapons.

Take absolutely nothing from Jerry Reese's endorsement of the teams linebackers and wide receivers. He endorsed Mario Manningham and Steve Smith in the spring of 2009 right before he drafted Hakeem Nicks. The rules of the NFL enhance the value of pass rushers and wide receivers. The Giants were acute enough to notice this a half decade ago and it paid off in the form of two Super Bowls. 

2. Lamar Miller, RB, Miami; Mychal Kendricks, LB, California; Marvin McNutt, WR, Iowa; Chris Givens, WR, Wake Forest; Nick Toon, WR, Wisconson; Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

This second round is excruciatingly difficult to get a gauge on and I can absolutely picture the Giants trading out of here. The Giants should be able to nab any one of these guys in the early 3rd round. 

With the added need for a running back, I would not be surprised if New York looked to get a bunch of picks in he 3rd and looked for some offensive play-makers where the value is best. Toon, Quick, Givens, and McNutt are the most intriguing options at wide receiver here with their skill- sets, and I'm not convinced wide receiver is not a very nigh priority for the Giants. 

3. Omar Bolden, CB, Arizona State; Bernard Pierce, RB, Temple; Audie Cole, MLB, North Carolina State; Jonathan Massaquoi, DE, Troy; Trumaine Johnson, CB/S, Montana; Antonio Allen, SS, South Carolina

While it has been said that this draft is not particularly deep or talented, I am having a tough time buying that. Perhaps it is just the way the NFL as a whole approaches the draft now. Teams jump on players for measurables and pre-draft hype and quarterbacks are valued at an absurd rate.

There are so many productive players projected to be available in the middle rounds and Jerry Reese likes production. The Giants go after players and develop them within a system. If they believe that a guy can work in a system, he gets drafted simple as that.

The deeper I dig into this process the harder it makes it to pin point what New York will do early on. They can get a strong pass rushing prospect like Massaquoi here in the 3rd or even a solid linebacker for some depth. All that said, I think we see a running back a bit earlier than expected for the Giants, a guy who projects as an NFL starter down the line. The Giants may stick with Bradshaw now, they may like Da'Rel Scott, and they may even pick up a stop gap, but frankly I am not betting on a single one of those right now. 

Conclusion

Giants 101 went four rounds deep to see how the Giants valued players in the draft during Jerry Reese's tenure, though it will be difficult to go four deep with this process. 

In the first three rounds, expect new York to continue to bolster pass offense and pass defense. A wide receiver, a corer/safety, and a pass rusher almost surely factor into New York's plans. From the pass rusher perspective, keep a close eye on the ones who are athletic enough to take some time at SAM.

Sticking with the "best player available" strategy, if a stud middle linebacker or running back presents themselves to the Giants, I don't expect them to pass.

References:

Research conducted by Dan Benton

Draft Value chart based on weighted values of all Giants draft selections in rounds 1-4 since 2004.

Also…

Tags: Bernard Pierce, Chris Givens, Eli Manning, Football, Kendall Wright, Lamar Miller, Luke Kuechly, New York, New York Giants, NFL, Nick Perry, Omar Bolden, Vinny Curry, Zach Brown

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71 Responses to “Using the New York Giants’ Draft History to Project Their 2012 NFL Draft Plans”

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  1.  demo3356 says:

    Nice Piece kid, pretty much what I’ve been saying for a couple of years and the process I’e been using to make a meatball out of Kujo leading up to past drafts..

  2.  GOAT56 says:

    Repost:

    demo3356 says:
    March 30, 2012 at 11:05 AM
    Couple of Points here
    1) No way in holy Hell are the giants trading a 2nd or even a 3rd rd pick for Stewart. Krow nailed it. Why the Hell would the giants trade say even a 3rd and invest about 15 mil to have him for the next 4 seasons when they could get a similar player with their own 3rd rd pick and invest about 2 million to have him for the same 4 years? When has JR ever traded higher than a 7th rd pick for a veteran player? Has he ever invested higher than a 4th rd pick on the RB Position?
    2) Goff is JAG at best, coming off an acl and knowing he wont be 100% until the 2013 season, why would JR offer him any more than the Minimum one year deal? I’m sure that offer is on the table but Goff being as smart as he is is looking around for something better. If he gets no better offer he will be back on minimum deal to compete for a spot and play ST’s
    3) Devin Thomas is also a JAG at best. guy was here for 2 years, was here when nearly EVERY other WR on the roster went down with injury and never caught on as a WR. He is a very good ST player and got scooped up by the best ST’s outfit in the NFL. A Team with 30X the cap room we have to offer. Is this really a mystery? This is the price for winning the Lombardi Folks..Our entire team gets exposure to the whole world and all our FA get over paid by desperate teams. Reese has one of the most talented Rosters in the NFL and unfortunately less than half the talent on this team is still on Rookie deals. This gets very expensive and with guys like Phillips, Nicks and Cruz coming up for FA next year, he has much bigger priorities than journeymen LB’s and Former bust WR’s that turn out to be good gunners.

    Reply
    GOAT56 says:
    March 30, 2012 at 11:20 AM
    First welcome back. Now on to my disagreements.

    1) I understand JR’s history with drafting RBs but I think in the past we have never been as low on RB talent. Especially, RB talent that can carry the load. Add to that Bradshaw’s issues with foot injuries and RB is a far greater concern than it has been. If Bradshaw had no durablity then I feel differently. I’m not saying JR will invest more than a 4th round pick in a RB but I’m saying it’s not something that would surprise me. Plus picking so late in rounds hurts too. I’m not sure we can even get a sleeper type RB (someone like Pierce or Turbin) with our pick in the 4th.

    2) I think Goff was more than JAG guy when he started in 2010. He wasn’t an allstar but was a solid starter. He appeared to be getting better too. Coming off of injury who knows. But I think if he does return he will likely be our MLB starter.

    3) Thomas was JAG but I think he has ability to do more. He might not so I will trust JR in that judgement. I would have preferred the depth because Jernigan, Barden, Hixon and a rookie are all questions. We need quality depth at WR and I’m not convince we have it. I understand we can’t keep everyone. I was only expecting a one year deal. Mike Simms Walker?

    •  demo3356 says:

      Thanks broski!, as for RB, I think we are fine. I am one of the few here that actually value Ware. I think we add a couple of guys in the draft and go from there. We will in no way shape or form trade a high pick to take on an expensive RB entering FA.. We neither have the caproom or the roster flexabiltiy to waste a good pick on a one year rental
      Goff was solid in 2010 and looked poise to break out last year but unfortunately he went down with an ACL which means he wont be back to where he was last preseason until 2013. I think Herz;ich is a better fit for our system and about 60% of our snaps will feature only Boley and Williams on the field anyway. We will draft another LB and probably bringin an UDFA to compete at LB as well. Goff may be back but only if he takes a minimum contract
      Thomas would have flashed as a WR at some point in the last 2 years if he was capable of it. Believe me there is a reason that the 2nd WR drafted a few years ago is now on his 4th team in 25 months.

      •  GOAT56 says:

        Let me clarify. I’m wouldn’t give up anything more than a 4th rounder for Steward. But I wouldn’t mind drafting a RB in the 2nd or 3rd round. I’m completely against going after vet RBs unless they are dynamic. Steward is they only RB that has been brought up as a vet on 101 that IMO is dynamic.

        Goff is a question mark I agree. But so is Herzlich. What happens if injury occurs? I think we need at least 2 solid options at MLB and I ‘m not willing to bet on Jones as one yet. I prefer Goff but even if we re-sign Blackburn that would surfice.

        I don’t think you being fair to Thomas flashing. He was behind to top guy and 2 other 3rd round Giant picks. The odds were stacked against him. Not saying that Thomas will be anything. But he’s flashed as much as Jernigan or Barden the last 2 years. I jsut would have liked him for depth. I have been a big fan of Hixon but 2 acls in 2 years means to me we can’t count on him at all. We can use better depth at WR. We will draft a day 1 or 2 WR.

        •  demo3356 says:

          Yeah, Thomas was here in 2010 when like 9 WR’s went on the IR and did nothing. He is a good ST guy, but he is on his 4th team in 25months.. If he had it someone a lot smarter than us on any of the three teams that gave up on him would have seen it. He is now on a team with one of the weakest WR corps in the NFL, if he ever was to shine,now is the time. Brandon Marshall is one domestic disturbance away from being an ABC after school special and Johnny Knox has a broken back. All this reinforces my point that the Bears with 30X more cap room than us could afford to over pay for him.. We can not aford to over pay to keep him in hopes that the 5th year was the charm.. We have no cap room and bigger fish to fry

          •  GOAT56 says:

            All I’m saying is he could contribute as part of our 3rd WR solution. In part because he knows the system. Even if Thomas is a JAG he’s better than another JAG because he knows the system. Remember how Hagan contributed in 2010. And Thomas has more ability.

            •  demo3356 says:

              Pretty sure if that was the case we would have signed him, especially after Mario left to SF. The bottom line is the Bears with 30X our Cap Room out bid us for him or Thomas having been here for 2 years realized he had a much better shot of being a WR in Chicago, OR JR and company realized he is JAG and saved what little cap room he had for more pressing needs. At the end of the day is Devin Thomas really worth loosing sleep over? Has anybody JR EVER let get away been as good our better with their new team? PRetty sure we will find another gunner and pretty sure somebody will step in as our 3rd WR and SQUASH whatever production Thomas MAY have in Chicacgo..

              •  GOAT56 says:

                When we discuss players like Thomas it goes much deeper. I liked Jernigan a lot coming out and believe he has a lot of ability but he has a lot to prove. I liked Barden too coming out but he hasn’t done anything. I like Hixon but he’s coming off of 2 acls. Add to that rookie WRs usually struggled in our system and that’s why I’m “concerned” over losing Thomas. Really, I’m just very concerned about our WR depth.

  3.  GOAT56 says:

    I think the Pathers will end up settling for something like a 4th round pick for Steward if they have to. What’s the point of having someone his talent that basically gets no carries on the roster when he’s a free agent. Osi plays a key role for us a many want to trade him to get value. Steward with Williams, Tolbert & Goodsen will play only a bit role. It makes sense to take a 4th or a 2013 3rd for him. The Pathers are just trying to get the most they can but in the end they will end up settling for the best offer. This reminds me of Marshawn Lynch who Buffalo ended up trading for a 4th and a conditional 5th round pick the following year. This happend following the Bills drafting Spiller and already having Fred Jackson.

    •  demo3356 says:

      I agree that they will settle on a 4 for him. I just think it wont be us they trade with. They will trade him to a team with Cap room that is desperate for RB help. The Redskins? More likely an AFC team though

      •  GOAT56 says:

        I think it will be Denver. Mcgahee can’t be expected to perform like last year again and Moreno has been pretty close to a bust. Wanting Steward and expecting him are 2 different things lol.

  4.  GOAT56 says:

    Excellent Piece!

  5.  Begiant says:

    Is Luke Kuechly falling in the draft? I know the eagles were a popular choice but with demeco ryans they might look elsewhere. If he is there at 32 it would be great value and we all know TC likes his BC guys

    • The thinking is Seattle will take him at 12.

      I highly disagree.

      When their new GM arrived, LB was the highest paid LB unit in the NFL. He has cut bait. like the Giants, this offseason he has poured his assets into the DL.

      A guy who has cut the LB payroll by 90% isn’t likely to go top 12 on one.

      Phillys goin DT

  6. Why would u give up a 4th rounder for a veteran whos never

    1 Been healthy

    2 been a feature back

    3 Doesn;t have a contract/will want an unreasonable one

    Draft a dude in the middle rounds and mold him into a stud.

    •  demo3356 says:

      amen brother…

    •  GOAT56 says:

      The truth is I’m really worried about Bradshaw long term. I don’t think a 4th round RB with questions like lets say Turbin is a better bet. I like Trubin too but Steward is much more known. I have no problem with bringing in a rookie and molding him. But looking more and more into the RBs I don’t think we find a RB without questions at our pick in the 4th round. I would rather trade that 4th round pick for Steward or address RB earlier in the draft. IMO we need solutions a RB and not more questions.

      •  demo3356 says:

        yeah, Bradshaw was a 7th rd pick with Questions… Stewart aint happening bro.. You can spin your wheels all you want between now and draft day or you can accept it:-) Jacobs and Brown were 4th rounders, Scott was like a 6th or 7th and Ware and Ward were pilfered off other teams practice squads.. If stewart was under contract for 2 years and this year was like 500k I’d say you had a snowballs chance in hell if realizing your dream…But over 1 mil and FA next year? Kujo has a better shot at being a fitness model…

        •  GOAT56 says:

          I agree that Steward isn’t happening, just stating it would be a good idea for a 4th… When we drafted all of those RBs we had a good RB situation and didn’t “need” production from a rookie like I feel will be necessary in 2012. I like Ware too but he’s JAG. And IMO not capable to perform as a #1. Scott is somewhat a mistery and right now just can’t be counted on for anything more than a change of pace. Brown is just a Ware type of RB. Bradshaw can’t stay healthy. So IMO we need a RB we know can produce from early. I’m not against drafting 2 RBs.

          •  demo3356 says:

            See thats our disagreement i a nutshell. It isnt a good idea to trade for him. He is a FA to be and his contract is a little too much for us as is. Giving up a quality pick for a guy we wont be able to retain next year is ludacris. We have Nicks, Cruz and KP to resign. That 4th would be much wiser spent on a guy we can control for cheap for the next 4 years.. This is not madden, there are big time cap considerations that just dont allow such deals. Maybe this is the year JR grabs a dynamic Playmaking RB in the 2nd if one falls, who knows. There are some Quality backs in this years draft and the RB positons value is plumetting in todays Flag Football NFL.

            •  GOAT56 says:

              I would only make the trade if we did extend him. But your cap concerns are valid. I think his talent is well worth the pick but the combination of either only having him one year or him adding to our cap issues is valid reason not to trade for him. I still don’t it’s a bad idea but not a great one either.

              My concern is just the overall talent of our RB group. We need to address it and in my view earlier than the 4th round.

  7. An off the radar team may jump at Kuechly because of talent, but im Just not seeing him in the top 20 atm.

    It has become so painfully obvious exactly what you need to win now:

    Pass rush, cover corners, WRs, and a QB.

    If your pickin in the top 20 you dont have enough of those

    •  demo3356 says:

      After that you need a stud OL to protect QB from said Pass rush to find those WR’s.. All more important than 4-3 LB’s or Running backs..

      •  fanfor55years says:

        First, welcome back.

        Second, you don’t need a “stud” O-line, just a pretty good one. And I’d put solid safeties up there at the same level of need because they allow your corners to go for turnovers, which are one of the the critical factors that change games.

        But I completely agree that running backs and 4-3 linebackers are way down the list of needs. You can do very well with one excellent linebacker and two adequate ones and with two “good but not great” running backs. We have Boley, Williams and Kiwi, all definitely good enough to do the job, and Herzlich looking like he could be an excellent MLB with more work. Bradshaw is a “food but not great running back”. We need one more. Could Scott, brown or Ware be that? I don’t know. But we only need one.

        •  demo3356 says:

          yep agree across the board, my only concern is that Goodells rule changes have minimized great safeties some what. A good ball hawking Safety is stil very valuable though

    •  Begiant says:

      funny i thought the eagles had all those

  8.  fanfor55years says:

    Kyle (with a big assist from Dan), this is one of the best pieces in a long time. Obviously, since it endorses and recognizes the same approach I’ve been pushing, I love the conclusions. But even if Reese proves all of us wrong, this is the kind of carefully thought-out work that makes this site so valuable.

    Congratulations.

    •  demo3356 says:

      yep, our secret is out of the bag now:-)

      •  fanfor55years says:

        They’re learning. The site gets better each year. It’s really good to have you back and laying down the wisdom. The more the better.

        •  demo3356 says:

          Thank you sir, it is good to be back. I’m on vacation and my 3 baseball teams are on spring break so unfortunately it will be short lived. Back to the grind on Monday! Got to drop some knowledge on the arm chair GM’s while I can:-)
          BTW- I noticed G101 Posting my Catch phrase, do I get royalties?

  9.  GOAT56 says:

    I think JR will draft someone he feels can be dynamic at 32. Which is why I still think our mock draft friend Fleener is a possibility if he’s on the board. More 2 TE sets is another way to make up for the loss of MM. Bennett gives us the flexibility of drafting a receiver type TE because he’s an all around TE. This is only if JR views Fleener as dynamic. He was at their pro day. Also Martin the LT from stanford is a big talent that seems to be falling.

    •  fanfor55years says:

      Both Fleener and Martin had GREAT college careers and got better over time. Fleener is probably a better athlete than Martin, but both have been very productive. Martin does sometimes get beaten to the inside on running plays because he doesn’t get his pads low enough, but he’s a very smart kid and can probably learn that technique. He was great at protecting Luck’s blind side. Fleener sometimes dogs it on blocks and is far better cutting inside than going to the sideline, but that’s more a critique of a WR than a TE and I only make it because Fleener sometimes looks like he’s a huge WR.

      Reese loves production. Fleener had a very impressive Combine while Martin had a mediocre Pro Day. Both could conceivably be available at #32, Fleener because he’s a tight end and Martin because of new doubts about his speed, quickness and athleticism. IMO, both should have good pro careers and each would be great value at #32. And you may remember that I’m the guy who long ago said that good slot receivers can make up for the loss of a quality tight end (ie. Smith for Shockey) and vice-versa (ie. a real pass-catching tight end for some portion of losing Mario). So while I still feel a pass-rusher or wide receiver is a more likely pick at #32, I wouldn’t be at all upset if Reese took either of these two guys.

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