Loading ...The New York Giants are 60 minutes of football away from their second Super Bowl appearance in five seasons under the always focused, always prepared head coach Tom Coughlin, and standing in their way are the rejuvenated San Francisco 49ers, who have taken on the personality of their head coach – confident and energetic first year man Jim Harbaugh.
New York is coming off of four straight games of complete football, games in which they have been in more control of as a team than any we've seen all season, winning by an average of more than 17 points over the past four weeks.
Meanwhile, the 49ers advanced to the conference championship after their first round bye week with a thrilling 36-32 win over the New Orleans Saints with a last minute touchdown connection between Alex Smith and tight end Vernon Davis that has been labeled around San Francisco as "The Catch III".
Both teams are in high spirits and both teams are feeling confident, but the Giants know that only one team can walk out of this game a winner on Sunday evening.
GAMEPLAN
Offensively, taking care of the football has to be the #1 priority
There is one thing this 49ers team thrives on and one way they win games – dominating the turnover battle. Defensively, they are coached to go after the football and hit hard to separate their man from the ball – and they do a hell of a job of that. With the weather conditions expected to be messy, the Giants have got to have an emphasis on ball security at the skill positions, and Eli Manning will likely be sure to tuck the football and take a sack over taking chances into coverage against this football team.
You've heard about it all week – these guys are +28 in the turnover margin. It's what they do. The Giants can not play into their hands. Patience and ball security will be key for this offensive attack.
Key in on the tight ends and running backs out of the backfield in the 49ers passing game
The 49ers are very straightforward in what they like to do offensively. They pound the run game, and use the short passing game to get Alex Smith into a rhythm and dominate the time of possession. That's their identity as an offense and the Giants will be looking to force them into doing things they aren't used to doing and getting them out of their comfort zone.
The Giants linebackers and safeties have to be very aware of the crossing patterns underneath and swing passes out of the backfield, and tackling is going to be extremely important in this game. The last time these two teams met the linebacker level did not tackle well – although those were under different circumstances, as Spencer Paysinger and Greg Jones saw a lot of playing time with Michael Boley hurt and Chase Blackburn still not on the roster.
Look, Alex Smith is very good at taking care of the football and he plays a smart football game. That said – the Giants will need to look to consistently force him to make stick throws down the football field, and tough throws on the sidelines and to the outside of the field, and take away those easy throws into the flats and over the middle. If they do, I expect to see a sputtering 49ers offense.
Bracket Vernon Davis in the red zone
Davis is playing the best football of his career right now and he and Alex Smith have formed some very good chemistry over the course of the season and you saw how far this duo has gotten last week against New Orleans.
Taking away Davis in the red zone will force Smith to likely look to the outsides on more difficult throws – like fades to the corner and slants into traffic – two routes Michael Crabtree is very capable of winning on, but also routes Corey Webster has shown the ability to defend very well in the red zone.
Davis can't be allowed to get going for this 49ers team, he's without a doubt the catalyst for the offense with his energy and big play ability.
Attack Carlos Rogers over the top
Watching the last game between these two teams, you notice a clear burst and acceleration advantage for Victor Cruz over cornerback Carlos Rogers – who he was matched up with for most of the afternoon. The 49ers were tied for third worst in the NFL with 12 pass completions allowed for 40 yards or more on the season. Look for the Giants to work some double moves and sideline routes in this matchup and see if they can get a couple of quick strikes on this 49ers defense.
THE GIANTS WILL WIN THIS GAME IF…
They take care of the football offensively and don't shoot themselves in the foot on special teams. Yes – in a playoff game of this magnitude, it can very well come down to that. The Giants are the more explosive offensive team, they have a clear advantage at quarterback, and their defense has been matched up with potent offenses in the past three weeks and has shown what it is capable of when at full strength and on the same page. The 49ers thrive on other teams mistakes. New York needs to come into this game patient and disciplined, and not play into that role.
BIG GAME CANDIDATE – S Antrel Rolle
Antrel Rolle has been coming on very strong over the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs, and his focus and energy has been at an extremely high level. He did an unbelievable job matching up in coverage for the Giants against Greg Jennings last week in Green Bay, and had a huge fumble recovery that really took momentum away from the Packers. With the intensity and the way Rolle has been locked in, I wouldn't be surprised to see the big plays coming from #26 on the defensive side of the football in this game.
PREDICTION
I like this matchup for the Giants. They have been playing the run very well defensively for the most part over the past month, and have the quarterback and big play weapons to take advantage of San Francisco where they are most weak – in the secondary. The conditions may be a little sloppy, which may take away from the Giants pass rush a little bit Sunday evening – but the Giants have the athletes to match up with the 49ers skill players, and the conditions really go both ways at the end of the day.
The Giants have got to take care of the football, they've got to make ball security a priority, and they can't hurt themselves with penalties and missed assignments. In other words – the Giants can't beat themselves. If they're clicking the way they have been this postseason, I don't think the 49ers can match up.
Giants 24, 49ers 13
Also…
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- Get your tickets to meet Brandon Jacobs at "The Man Show" January 29th
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So nervous.
Dont be we got this 28-13 Giants
Excellent work, as usual, Haz.
I’m pretty much 100% on board with your breakdown.
And I like your selection of Rolle as a prospective Big Game Candidate. Looking back on the Packer game, it’s evident that the Giants went into that contest very much aware of Green Bay’s penchant for winning the turnover battle. While the Pack were nowhere near as dependent on it for their success as are the Niners, they still finished the season something like +24 in that category. Not only did the Giants take the field at Lambeau knowing they had to protect the ball, they also appeared to be much more aggressive about trying to generate a few turnovers of their own. They looked to be attacking the ball much more than in any other game I can remember this year. It would not surprise me at all if they went after the 49er ball carriers with the same ferocious mindset.
Well, fellas… Wanna wish everyone here the best weekend.
Let’s get ready for a great Giants win on sunday.
My prediction. 27-17 Giants.
they go up there and win in similar dominating fashion that they did in GB.
Really fine analysis Haz. I’d like to add Kiwi and Boley as likely “big game” nominees. Kiwi will play a huge roll in stopping up Gore, and Boley is going to prove the antidote to those delayed crossing patterns by their tight ends.
I cannot wait to get this Sunday going. I hate that I’m agreeing with Rex Ryan, but I like the Giants and the Ravens in Indianapolis. I had the Packers and the Ravens as my preseason picks to meet and am awfully happy I was wrong about the team coming out of the NFC. The Ravens looked a bit vulnerable last week, but I think they will get it together and manage to hold the Pats’ tight ends reasonably in check and dominate the possession time in that game.
On the radio and around the web I keep hearing and reading the comment that these teams are “built the same.” Where have people been living. This is not Joe Morris and Phil Simms taking the field on Sunday. This is the most prolific passing attack that the Giants have had in my lifetime. One team that is led by a pro-bowl super bowl MVP QB with three WR’s that score on any play from anywhere cannot be compared as similar to Alex Smith and company. Please, enough already with talking about how these teams are similar.
Meanwhile, a critical issue for the Giants is going to be how David Diehl handles one or the other Smiths, both of whom will come at him a number of times over the course of the game. In fact, teams do better running on the Niners to their left, so Diehl may have a major role in getting the rushing game going. But the major issue is protecting Eli against some awfully good pass rushers. I think many Giants fans underestimate how well Diehl and Eli have worked together over the years. While Diehl is occasionally beaten, he and Eli seem completely aware of from where Eli will be releasing the ball on nearly every pass (it varies depending upon the play call) and how much time DD has to buy Eli in order for him to get a free release before he gets hit. He has done a pretty darn good job of protecting his quarterback and I suspect will continue to do so. He’d better.
I’m very surprised that no one but Norm has mentioned the Giants aggressive ballhawking last week. It jumped off the screen during the game. And, it bloody well worked to near perfection.
I’m not as sanguine as most here about the Giants chances because I see a very hungry, very tough opponent. Up to the second Redskins game, I talked up the game that must not be named (at least by me) on a weekly basis. The continuing failure of the D line up to that point had finally drained me of all hope. Tuck was a HUGE disappointment, wallowing in self pity and depression. Then the miraculous turnaround. I love it but I’m still hungover from the 7-7 start.
I hate the Niners, just as I hate every team that has ever thwarted the Giants from winning the Big One. There are no lesser-evil teams this year. Ravens, Pats, Niners—f’k ‘em all, man, f’k ‘em all.
The Giants must win this week. It’s that simple.
Love your post. Well said!
They must win so that Trey Junkin can sleep.
I just want another Super Bowl thread. I’ll never forget it!
“They are averaging a sack every 7.0 pass attempts when Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mathias Kiwanuka are on the field together. When they aren’t, the Giants get a sack every 15.6 pass attempts.”
I don’t see the Giants losing because our offense is just too powerful, whereas the 49ers’ is not. Here’s why the Giants win:
Alex Smith vs. Eli Manning – This one’s obvious. Alex Smith is no better than average, while Eli is a Super Bowl MVP who is capable of carrying this team on his back. People are lauding Alex Smith for his play against the Saints, but don’t forget the Saints have the third worst defense in the NFL. Plus, who would you want at the helm of the offense down 3 with a minute to play? ADVANTAGE GIANTS
Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter vs. Ahmad Bradshaw, Brandon Jacobs, D.J. Ware – Gore and Hunter teamed up to make the 49ers the number 1 rushing team in the league this year, but Gore isn’t very healthy right now. Gore is the type of back we do well against, but I think that we struggle slightly against Hunter. He is one of those shifty backs we hate. I see him posting something like a 12 carry, 65 yards, 1 TD stat line. The Giants have been rushing well of late, but still struggle often to open up holes for Bradshaw, Jacobs, and Ware. I don’t see Jacobs having a good game because he doesn’t match up well against the 49ers D, but Bradshaw and Ware should have successful games. Maybe something like a 20 carry, 80 yard, 2 TD day from them combined. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE 49ERS
Henry Hynoski vs. Bruce Miller – Hynoski has really improved his blocking of late, and has become a great blocking fullback. Defenders don’t like to see him coming through the hole. And he has really come on with his pass-catching, and is a valuable weapon in the flats for Eli. Bruce Miller is pretty much the same, as everything I said for Hynoski applies to him. Watch out for him on wheel routes. EVEN
Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham vs. Michael Crabtree, Kyle Williams, Brett Swain (assuming Ted Ginn Jr. is out, which is looking increasingly likely) – Again, this one’s obvious. Hakeem Nicks is extremely physical and is a nightmare for any cornerback. Not to mention his YAC ability and speed. Cruz is incredibly speedy and has unnatural leaping ability and great hands, and again his YAC ability is great. Manningham will blow past anyone the 49ers put on him with his great speed. Crabtree has not turned out to be what he was being touted as coming out of Texas Tech, and got a case of the dropsies last week, which coincidentally his first playoff game. Someone has a bad case of nerves? Kyle Williams is a speedy receiver with ok hands and ok route running. Nothing special. And since I assume Ted Ginn Jr. won’t play, Brett Swain must step in for him. I don’t even need to say anything about Brett Swain. ADVANTAGE GIANTS.
Jake Ballard, Travis Beckum vs. Vernon Davis – Ballard, a reliable TE with good hands and who doesn’t fumble, is a solid player who can occasionally make the great catch, but is as slow as a snail. He won’t outrun anyone, but is extremely valuable on 3rd down. His blocking has been solid. Beckum gets open about once a game if he’s in enough, and could be able to surprise the 49ers with a long touchdown by beating their safety or linebacker early, whichever is one him. Vernon Davis is a matchup nightmare, very physical and has great hands and good speed. He’s also a solid blocker. We need to watch out for him, cause he could very well decide this game as he is Alex Smith’s primary red zone target. ADVANTAGE 49ERS
Offensive Line (Giants) vs. Offensive Line (49ers) – The Giants O-line has struggled to open holes, but has improved recently. Is about a 6/7 out of 10 is pass protection and a 5/10 in run blocking. They need to control Justin Smith and Aldon Smith if they want to keep Eli on his feet. Kevin Boothe, David Baas, and David Diehl need to have strong games. The 49ers O-line is solid from what I know, and I’ll admit I don’t know much. But considering they gave up 44 sacks, I assume that they’re subpar in pass protection but very good in run blocking. Look for the Giants D-line to have a big game. SLIGHT ADVANTAGE GIANTS.
OVERALL ADVANTAGE GIANTS. Eli and the Gmen receivers are just too good, and I don’t think Alex Smith and Vernon Davis will be able to keep up alone. I see the Giants playing a solid game against the run, giving up about 90 yards. Crabtree needs to have a big game for the 49ers, which, under Corey Webster’s coverage, he won’t do. 49ers’ CBs will have trouble all day with Cruz, Nicks, and Manningham’s speed. The Giant rush for 90 yards and win this game 27-17.