GIANTS 101

There is a lot of buzz about USC safety Taylor Mays on this site and every other NFL site for all 32 teams in the right now, and it’s with good reason.  Mays is an absolute freak of an athlete, standing at 6’3 weighing 230lbs he ran a 4.43 40 yard dash, bench pressed 225lbs 25 repetitions, and displayed a 41″ vertical leap.  Jaw dropping numbers for anyone, let alone a 230lb defensive back.  Analysts have been predicting for over a year that Mays would wow everyone at the NFL combine, and he certainly did not disappoint.  Taylor Mays is clearly a rare athlete who is very impressive working out in shorts, but as we have seen time and time again, this does not always translate into stardom with shoulder pads and helmets on the football field.

It happens every year around this time, certain players blow away scouts with their combine workouts and jump up draft boards even though their production on the field does not match their workout numbers.  These “workout warriors” had everyone from NFL scouts to the causal fan drooling for a few years, but after half of players began to turn into NFL busts, it seems that everyone has smartened up.  Hopefully even the Raiders, who may never hear the end of their atrocious Darius Heyward-Bey pick last season, have learned their lesson.  Combine results should not be a huge factor when judging where a player will be drafted, but used as more of a guideline to make a decision between two closely ranked players at a position of need.  If I were the GM of an NFL franchise, I would look at my team needs and find a player that fit them best based on 1) their game tape 2) their on-field production and 3) their combine numbers, in that order of importance.

When I look at Taylor Mays, it is clear he is a world-class athlete, but the production on the game film and the box score is just not up to par with his physical attributes.  I understand Mays has made some eye-popping hits that warrant a youtube video, and it would be one thing if he was making one of these hits on every series or even every game.  Over the course of four years at USC, he has made a fair amount of big hits, about what you would expect from a 230lb safety.  Enough that it everyone has seen the youtube video and everyone thinks he is a big hitter.  The statistic that jumped out at me was zero forced fumbles as a junior or a senior.  Such a bone crushing hitter should be knocking the ball loose from a ball carrier or two per season.  At least one.  Go back and watch some film of USC over he last few seasons, and you will be surprised that other than a few punishing hits that made his youtube clip, Mays seems tentative when tackling the ball carrier.  I understand that having his physical presence on the field may make receivers think twice before coming across the middle, but in the open field he more hangs on to ball carriers and drags them down with his weight instead of delivering the blow.

Re-watch the Notre Dame game this past season, the loss to Arizona, the loss to Stanford, the win over #8 Ohio State.  Mays does not look like a first round pick, in fact, you hardly notice him on the field.  You will see Mays whiffing on a lot more tackles than making highlight reel big hits.  Watch Jaquizz Rodgers and Oregon State run circles around Mays in 2008, where he looks more like a mannequin than a Pro Bowler.  At the end of almost every USC game, you are not thinking, “Wow that Taylor Mays is one hell of a player, he was all over the place today” but, “Where the heck was Taylor Mays, I thought he was supposed to be a first rounder?”

Look at Mays in coverage; he does not even attempt to make a play on the ball, and waits for the play to come to him.  Of course he makes some big sticks with this style of play, if he is in the right place when the ball gets there, then it’s going to be a big hit.  What troubles me is that he is timid and unaggressive when the ball is in the air, and seems to almost freeze, and this is proven on his stat sheet with just one interception over the last two seasons.  His 4.43 speed is great straight line catch up speed, which he needs to drag down receivers after the reception, but he lacks the fluidity to make plays in coverage.

Following Eric Berry, a surefire top ten pick in the 2010 draft, the next two safeties off of the board will be Earl Thomas of Texas and Taylor Mays in some order (although I could easily make a case for Nate Allen).  If I was an NFL franchise I would draft Earl Thomas ahead of Taylor Mays as the second safety off of the board.  Compare their numbers over the past two seasons.  Earl Thomas checks in with 96 tackles, 10 interceptions, 5 forced fumbles.  Over the same two seasons Taylor Mays had 83 tackles, 1 interception and zero forced fumbles.  The scheme that each player was in is an important factor, as Thomas was more of a centerfielder, while Mays played closer to the line of scrimmage.  However, if Mays was supposed to be at the line of scrimmage stopping the run, where are the tackles?  Thomas had 13 more tackles, nine more interceptions and five more forced fumbles than Mays over the span of time.  You noticed Earl Thomas when you watched Texas and other than his rare punishing highlight reel hit, Mays rarely stood out with his play while watching USC.

After all of my ripping of Taylor Mays, I do not think he is going to be a total bust, and do think he will be a serviceable NFL safety.  I do not see him as a freak of nature who will forever redefine the safety position as we know it.  I think Mays is going to be a lot like Adam Archuleta, who had an amazing combine (4.37 40 yard dash, 39″ vertical, 31 reps – maybe a better combine than Mays) for a bigger safety (6′ 215lbs) and was selected by the Rams with the 20th pick of the 2001 draft.  Archuleta never became a superstar, but had a solid but ultimately disappointing NFL career, based on where he was drafted.  If Archuleta was drafted in the late second or early third round, it would not have been a reach, based on how his career played out.  I would draft Mays the late second or early third round as well, but would not select him in the first round.  I feel bad for Mays; he should have entered the 2009 draft, when he would have been a top 10 pick.  After watching him closely during his senior season, I simply cannot justify selecting Mays with a first rounder.

With all of this being said, this is a Giants site, so I should comment on Taylor Mays and his fit with the team.  The Giants have their top three safeties set at the moment, with potential stars Kenny Phillips and Antrel Rolle penciled in as the starters, and the valuable and experienced Michael Johnson as the third safety.  The fourth safety should either be a mid-round pick in the draft or one of the young players who has developing on the practice squad.  I keep hearing that Sha’reef Rashad turned heads in practice more than once last season.  Those would be my top four, after I cut C.C. Brown and maniacally laughed while doing it.  However, with the concerns about Kenny Phillips knee, the situation becomes cloudier.  If the team is worried about Phillips, they could spend a mid-round pick on a developmental safety, someone like Morgan Burnett, Nate Allen, Darnell Stuckey, Larry Asante, Myron Rolle or Major Wright.  If the team is confident in Phillips, I think they could afford to neglect the safety position completely in this draft.

Either way, the Giants should not consider a safety in the first two rounds, but especially not with the fifteenth pick overall.  At this point, there are only a few scenarios that I would be okay with in the first round.  1) McClain (if he is on the board.)  2) Dan Williams (if he is on the board and McClain is gone.)  3) Sean Weatherspoon (if both of those players are gone).  4) Trent Williams (who will likely be gone). 5) Maurkice Pouncey (can play all three interior spots, I like him a lot more than Ituapi).  6) C.J. Spiller (luxury pick, but a great weapon to have).

Interesting Stats: Only 39% (25 of 64) of the starting safeties in the NFL were drafted in the first two rounds of the draft.  10 starting safeties in the league were undrafted free agents, while only nine were first round picks.

Note: If I learned one thing while writing this, it is how very sad it is that I remembered Adam Archuleta’s combine numbers from 2001 off the top of my head, looked it up to verify them and was dead on.  I am a combination of impressed and disgusted with myself.  I may have a problem.

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